Despite elevated price levels, Brazilian demand for fuel remains strong. Total demand should exceed the average recorded in 2019, still in 2022, and continue to rise in 2023, due to the recovery from the impacts of the pandemic, and due to the growth of agribusiness.
In the October edition, EPE projects growth for 2022 of 2.4% in sales of diesel oil, 3.1% in gasoline, 37% in Jet, and no growth in LPG.
Diesel demand is expected to remain high, despite a volatile and adverse external environment, which has raised prices considerably. This is mainly due to the increase in agricultural production, record sales of diesel cars, and the anticipation of truck sales due to the entry of Proconve P8 standards for heavy vehicles (EURO VI).
For Otto cycle fuels, EPE considers that changes in state and federal taxes, which have reduced prices for consumers, should continue stimulating demand.
The offer of domestic flights has recovered pre-pandemic levels. Prices and exchange rates still affect jet fuel consumption, especially in international flights. However, this consumption should continue to recover, reaching pre-pandemic levels in the 2nd half of 2023.
LPG sales are expected to remain stable in 2022. High prices and the return to face-to-face work reduce demand. Nevertheless, the increase in employment and cash transfers to the population should offset part of the negative impact arising from the increase in prices and the reduction in the population's income.
Brazil's Short-Term Fuel Market Outlook is a bimonthly report of EPE that presents projections for monthly sales of petroleum products and biofuels in Brazil. This publication aims to reduce information asymmetry, favoring decision-making in the energy sector.
Click here and read the October 2022 edition.