Brazilian demand for fuel will keep growing in 2023 and 2024 and the main reasons are the growth of agribusiness (with record crop projections for 2022/23) and mobility. Diesel consumption has the most prominent increase.
In the April edition, EPE projects growth for 2023 of 1.9% of diesel oil demand, 0.3% in gasoline, 8.9% in hydrous ethanol, 6.2% in Jet, and a 1.4% growth in LPG. The offer of domestic flights has recovered pre-pandemic levels, although demand for corporate flights has not. Prices and exchange rates still affect jet fuel consumption, especially in international flights. Brazilian airways have announced the acquisition of new airplanes and expansion of their operations, aiming to increase the offer of flights in the near future. Demand is gradually recover in the next couple years.
For Otto cycle fuels, EPE estimates that the growth in 2023 and 2024 continues and the share of gasoline will be in the same level. The recovery of the sugarcane harvest, together with the increase in the production of corn ethanol, contributes to expanding the supply of this biofuel.
Click here and read the April 2023 edition and here to access previous editions.