Brazilian fuel market has followed its path of gradual recovery, with a growth of 4.8% in 2021 – but still 1.7% below pre-pandemic levels.

This recovery has been driven mainly by diesel, whose sales reached an all-time high of 62.1 billion liters in 2021 – pushed by the strong performance of agricultural, mining, civil constructing, and e‑commerce sectors.

The resumption of mobility in 2021 led to a robust growth of 9.4% in Brazilian gasoline consumption. In the other hand, hydrous ethanol sales declined 12%, influenced by high sugar prices in the international market and by the drop in the Brazilian sugarcane production.

With the advance of vaccination in Brazil and in the world, the aviation sector – and, consequently, the jet fuel demand – has gradually recovered in recent months, but still far below pre-pandemic levels. In early 2021, the spread of the Omicron variant has affected the aviation sector, albeit less intensely than in other waves.

Multiple increases in LPG prices throughout 2021 have affected its consumption in Brazil, especially in low-income families. Cooking gas sales decreased 1.1% last year, following a poor fourth-quarter.

EPE estimates that the Brazilian fuel market will keep its upward trajectory in 2022, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. In this February edition, we forecast that diesel sales will increase by 0.7%, gasoline sales will increase by 1.9%, hydrous ethanol will increase by 1.6%, jet fuel will increase by 30%, and LPG will increase by 0.9% in 2022.

Brazil's Short-Term Fuel Market Outlook is a bimonthly report of EPE that presents projections for monthly sales of petroleum products and biofuels in Brazil. This publication aims to reduce information asymmetry, favoring decision-making in the energy sector.

Click here and read the February 2022 edition.

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