EPE Technical Note estimates investments and operating and maintenance costs for ethanol, biodiesel, biomethane, sustainable aviation fuel, and renewable diesel within the PDE 2036 horizon.
Published on November 6, 2026
Investments in capital assets (CAPEX) in the biofuels sector could reach R$ 142 billion between 2027 and 2036, while operating and maintenance costs (OPEX) are estimated at approximately R$ 1.2 trillion over the same period. These estimates are presented in the Technical Note “Investments and Operating and Maintenance Costs in the Biofuels Sector: 2027–2036," published this Friday, November 6, by the Energy Research Office (EPE).
Prepared by EPE's Petroleum Products and Biofuels Department, the study is aligned with the Biofuels and Synthetic Fuels Report of the 2036 Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2036) and covers sugarcane ethanol (1G and 2G), corn ethanol, biodiesel, biomethane, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and renewable diesel.
Ethanol accounts for the largest share of investments, totaling R$ 61.6 billion, of which R$ 25.3 billion is allocated to new corn ethanol plants and R$ 24.1 billion to the establishment of sugarcane plantations. This is followed by SAF and renewable diesel projects, with R$ 39.0 billion; biomethane, with R$ 31.1 billion; and biodiesel, with R$ 9.9 billion, including investments in expanding soybean crushing capacity. When investments associated with sugar production are also considered, total CAPEX reaches R$ 172 billion.
The technical note also includes a sensitivity analysis regarding the biodiesel content in diesel B under Brazil's Fuel of the Future Law. A 25% biodiesel blend (B25) in 2036 would require an additional R$ 3.2 billion in biodiesel production capacity, on top of soybean crushing investments estimated at R$ 11.2 billion under the B20 scenario and R$ 17.2 billion under the B25 scenario.
To access the full Technical Note, click here.
