June 18th, 2026
Brazilian liquid fuel and LPG demand is forecast to increase 3.6 billion liters in 2026 and another 2.7 billion liters in 2027, a progress that demonstrates the dynamism of economic activity and the vitality of the domestic market.
Economic and job market growth, income transfer policies and government programs, with emphasis on the New Growth Acceleration Program (Novo PAC) and Gás do Povo, should contribute to the continuous increase in fuel consumption throughout this period.
This environment is driven by a favorable economic scenario: per capita GDP has been growing since 2024 and inflation continues to decline. At the same time, Brazil is experiencing record levels of formal employment and real income, with a historic reduction in the unemployment rate, decreasing inequality, and real wage appreciation.
Despite the effects of the war on the escalation of international prices, domestic demand is not expected to be impacted in the short term. This is partially due to the set of measures implemented by the Federal Government to soften the economic impacts of rising oil prices, for diesel, gasoline, aviation kerosene (QAV), and LPG, which support the continued growth in demand. These indicators, combined with positive projections for the grain harvest, support an increase in diesel demand, which is expected to reach 73 billion liters in 2026, highlighting the strength of agribusiness, logistics, and the national industry.
In the Otto cycle fuels segment, consumption continues on an upward trajectory, expected to reach 64,7 billion liters in 2026. Ethanol is an important alternative for ensuring energetic security, particularly in the context of international conflicts. The positive outlook for the 2026/27 sugarcane harvest and the solid growth in corn ethanol production strengthen the supply of biofuels, ensuring energy security. Demand for hydrated ethanol remains high, increasing the share of renewable fuels.
The aviation sector, in turn, is experiencing a new phase of expansion: jet fuel demand in 2026 is expected to exceed, for the first time, the historic record of 2014, reaching levels above 7.5 billion liters, growing sustainably.
Meanwhile, LPG shows growth prospects not seen in years in the sector, supported by increased disposable income, full employment, the Gás do Povo Program, an initiative to promote access to clean energy for domestic use, and the expansion of available income by reforming the Personal Income Tax, for those who earns until 7,350 reais and exempting those earning up to 5,000 reais. Added to this are opportunities for market evolution and expansion.
Click here and read the June 2026 edition.
