Concerns about the consequences of climate change caused by increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities have made this issue relevant worldwide. Fossil fuel burning in the energy sector is one of the main sources of GHG emissions, and for this reason, energy planning studies carried out by EPE bring analyses of Brazilian energy sector emissions in the future.
In the medium and long-term planning, GHG emissions due to energy supply are estimated and the results are related Brazilian international negotiations on climate change and the commitments assumed by the country.
Since the PDE 2020, mid-term planning incorporates a target for GHG emissions, in accordance with the National Policy on Climate Change (Law 12,187 / 2009). In addition, by using the medium and long term scenarios developed for the PDE and PNE, EPE projected GHG emissions for the year 2020 that helped to determine the contribution of the energy sector to the emission goal established by the Decree 7.390/2010. This Decree regulates the National Policy on Climate Change and establishes that the Ten Year Energy Plan (PDE) is considered the Sectoral Plan for Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change with regard to the Energy sector, raising the importance of this planning instrument to the national strategy for climate change.
It should be noted that the Paris Agreement entered into force in November 2016 and that Brazil, as signatory party, proposed through its NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) a reduction of 37% of emissions at 2025 (for the economy as a whole), based on 2005 emissions.
It is important to note that Brazil already stands out for its actual large share of renewable sources in the energy matrix, hence presenting "today" a low carbon matrix that many countries intend to have within some "decades". However, the country still has a long path to reach socio-economic standards comparable to those of developed countries. For this reason, a growth of its per capita energy consumption and GHG emissions is expected in the near future, even with a large share of renewable energy sources in its matrix. Nevertheless, this will not slow down the efforts to reduce GHG emissions, not only in the energy sector, but also in sectors with significant contributions, such as transport and industry, seeking the best cost-benefit ratio.
