Brazilian fuel market continues its upward trajectory, remaining above pre-pandemic levels since June 2021.
This recovery has been driven mainly by diesel, whose sales have reached record highs in several months (March, April, June, July, August and September). The growth in diesel demand reflects the strong performance of agricultural, mining and e‑commerce sectors.
The resumption of mobility has led to a recovery in Otto cycle fuel consumption, mainly for gasoline. However, sales of hydrous ethanol have declined in recent months, influenced by high sugar prices in the international market and by the drop in the Brazilian sugarcane production – due to frost and water deficit in important producing regions.
Jet fuel demand has gradually recovered in recent months with the advance of vaccination in Brazil and in the world, but still far below pre-pandemic levels.
LPG sales had been showing strong performance in 2021, as emergency relief and working from home measures increased the household cooking. However, recent price increases have affected LPG consumption, especially in low-income families.
In the November 2021 Brazil's Short-Term Fuel Market Outlook, EPE forecasts diesel sales growth of 7.6%, gasoline sales growth of 7.9%, and jet fuel sales growth of 23% in 2021. For hydrous ethanol and for LPG, we project a retraction of 11% and 0.4%, respectively, this year.
For 2022, EPE considers that the resumption of economic activity should drive the growth in petroleum products and biofuels consumption in Brazil. In this November edition, we forecast that diesel sales will increase by 1.0%, gasoline sales will increase by 1.1%, hydrous ethanol will increase by 6.7%, jet fuel will increase by 31%, and LPG will increase by 0.9% in 2022.
Brazil's Short-Term Fuel Market Outlook is a bimonthly report of EPE that presents projections for monthly sales of petroleum products and biofuels by distributors in Brazil. This publication aims to reduce information asymmetry, favoring decision-making in the energy sector.
Click here and read the November 2021 edition.