Brazilian fuel demand is forecast to maintain its recovery trajectory throughout 2022, surpassing 2019 demand levels this year.
A volatile and adverse external environment, in addition to high inflation and interest rates globally, hamper global and Brazilian growth prospects.
Despite this, the return of mobility with the end of restrictions to contain the spread of Covid-19, tax reductions in fuels prices, increases in job creation, income transfers and agricultural production should make the demand for fuels exceed pre-Covid levels. in 2022.
In the August edition, EPE projects growth for 2022 of 1.2% in sales of diesel oil, 1.6% in gasoline, 1.1% in hydrous ethanol, 31% in Jet, and no growth in LPG.
Diesel demand is expected to remain high, especially due to the increase in agricultural production, despite a volatile and adverse external environment.
For Otto cycle fuels, EPE considers that changes in state and federal taxes, which have reduced prices for consumers, should continue stimulating demand.
The aviation sector is still being hampered by high prices and an undervalued domestic exchange rate. However, the domestic market has already recovered, and international flights tend to recover, especially in 2023, with the return of many routes.
LPG demand has registered lower values than last year. Nevertheless, the increase in employment and cash transfers to the population should offset part of the negative impact arising from the increase in prices and the reduction in the population's income.
Brazil's Short-Term Fuel Market Outlook is a bimonthly report of EPE that presents projections for monthly sales of petroleum products and biofuels in Brazil. This publication aims to reduce information asymmetry, favoring decision-making in the energy sector.
Click here and read the August 2022 edition.
